Quick & Reliable Predictions
August 15th, 2021 marks the 50th anniversary of the iconic moment the US left the gold standard and adopted the Fiat currency. This is a breakdown of the history, and what effects this decision has had over the last 50 years.
Great Britain unofficially entered the gold standard while being legally on the silver standard with 62 shillings minted from a troy pound of sterling silver. Circulating silver coins, however, were mostly clipped and underweight, resulting in a persistently high price for the better-quality gold guinea worth 21-22 shillings.
In 1717 Britain accidentally adopted a de facto gold standard, when Sir Isaac Newton, then-master of the Royal Mint, set the exchange rate of silver to gold too low, thus causing silver coins to go out of circulation. A formal gold specie standard was first established in 1821, when Britain adopted it following the introduction of the gold sovereign by the new Royal Mint at Tower Hill in 1816.
As Britain became the world’s leading financial and commercial power in the 19th century, other states increasingly adopted Britain’s monetary system.
Gold was a preferred form of money due to its rarity, durability, divisibility, fungibility and ease of identification, often in conjunction with silver. Silver was typically the main circulating medium, with gold as the monetary reserve. Commodity money was anonymous, as identifying marks can be removed. Commodity money retains its value despite what may happen to the monetary authority.
The gold standard became the basis for the international monetary system after 1870. Adopting and maintaining a singular monetary arrangement encouraged international trade and investment by stabilizing international price relationships and facilitating foreign borrowing.
In the early part of the 20th century, all the world’s key economies were on the gold standard. But in 1931, the system began to unravel in the most powerful country in the world: England. When the Great Depression hit, the people in England panicked, and started trading in their paper money for gold. It got to the point where the Bank of England was in danger of running out of gold.
This was a terrifying thought — particularly for Montagu Norman, the head of the Bank of England.
Norman faced an impossible dilemma: It was becoming increasingly difficult for England to remain on the gold standard. Norman became sick and were advised to leave office, which he later did. While he was gone, his colleagues at the Bank of England realized they had no choice. They were about to run out of gold, so they abandoned the gold standard.
This had a knock-on effect on other European countries, and a few years later, Franklin D. Roosevelt decided to also depart the traditional gold standard, after taking office in 1933.
After the Second World War, a system similar to a gold standard and sometimes described as a “gold exchange standard” was established by the Bretton Woods Agreements. Under this system, many countries fixed their exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar and central banks could exchange dollar holdings into gold at the official exchange rate of $35 per ounce. All currencies pegged to the dollar thereby had a fixed value in terms of gold.
The government held the $35 per ounce price until August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value, thus completely abandoning the gold standard.
Effects of leaving the Gold Standard:
Going off the gold standard gave the government new tools to steer the economy. If you’re not tied to gold, you can adjust the amount of money in the economy if you need to. You can adjust interest rates.
The drawback is that, in the years since the end of the gold standard, there’s been a significant and growing lack of discipline when it comes to government spending. Before 1971, there was a natural limit to how much money could be printed. New issuance were dependent on the amount of gold sitting in the nation’s coffers.
Today, with the dollar backed not by a hard asset but by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government, the federal debt has passed $28 trillion, which is more than 130% of the size of the U.S. economy.
According to the Treasury Department, official gold reserves currently stand at approximately 261 million ounces, for a market value of some $493 billion.
There is just not enough metal to support an economy as large as the U.S. unless the price of each ounce of gold was fixed at something outrageous like $100,000.
There has been some discussion of making Bitcoin a reserve currency. Like gold, its supply is limited, and it has the potential to scale up. But cryptos are currently far too volatile for this to be an option.
Advantages of Gold Standard:
Disadvantages:
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/01/25/the-gold-standard-ended-50-years-ago-federal-debt-has-only-exploded-since/?sh=591be3b41e17